Return-Path: Election win in Pa. hangs by a vote
By David M. Brown
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TRIBUNE-REVIEW
Friday, September 17, 2004
http://pittsburghlive.com/x/tribune-review/election/s_252073.html
"This, in reality, is going to come down to the very last vote in Pennsylvania," said Jerry Shuster, a political analyst who teaches communications at the University of Pittsburgh and Robert Morris University.
The Republican president nosed ahead of the challenger by a 2-point margin -- a statistical dead heat -- according to the Keystone poll conducted for the Trib. The poll showed Bush edging Kerry by 47 percent to 45 percent, with 8 percent undecided, among 491 registered voters. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus of 4.4 percentage points.
Among likely voters, the race is even closer: tied at 49 percent, the poll found.
Undecided voters who participated in the survey told the Trib in follow-up interviews that they still haven't made up their minds whether Bush or Kerry can best handle troubling issues, such as the war in Iraq and the economy.
"I really don't feel the campaigns right now are talking about issues that I'm interested in," said Linda Myer, of Greensburg, Westmoreland County, an undecided independent. "They talk more about Kerry's war record and Bush's service in the National Guard. That's history. I want to know about today and what they plan for the future of the country."
The Keystone poll, conducted by Franklin & Marshall College in Lancaster County, indicates Bush effectively used the Republican National Convention earlier this month to sway Pennsylvania voters. A Keystone poll in August showed the president trailing Kerry by 48 percent to 42 percent.
"I think the big story here is that Bush has gained ground as the issue focus has changed," said poll director G. Terry Madonna. "The shift is dramatic."
Bush leads in part because the issues voters care most about are terrorism and homeland security, not the economy, he said. A Keystone poll in March showed 31 percent of the voters thought the economy was the most important issue; now, just 20 percent do.
"Almost 50 percent of Bush voters say the war on terror and homeland security -- and 48 percent of Kerry's voters say the economy and health care -- are reasons they are voting for their guy," Madonna said. "If the election is about terrorism, Bush carries Pennsylvania. If it's about the economy, Kerry wins."
The survey, conducted between Sept. 8 and 15, did not include independent presidential candidate Ralph Nader. His name was removed from Pennsylvania's ballot by Commonwealth Court. The August poll included Nader.
Two other statewide polls released yesterday also reflected a tight race between Bush, 58, and Kerry, 60.
A Quinnipiac University poll of likely Pennsylvania voters puts Bush at 49 percent and Kerry at 48 percent. An ABC News survey of likely state voters produced identical numbers.
Last month, the Quinnipiac poll showed Kerry leading Bush, 47 percent to 42 percent.
Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Connecticut-based Quinnipiac Polling Institute, said the "numbers show that clearly the GOP and the president hammered home the message (during the convention) that he is a stronger leader with a clearer vision of where he wants to take this country in the next four years."
Mark Nevins, a spokesman for the Kerry campaign, said Bush's bump from the convention wasn't a surprise.
"This is going to be a dog-fight -- too close to call all the way through Election Day," he said. "In the end, John Kerry is going to win because we have better ideas for creating jobs, making health care more accessible and getting Pennsylvania back on the right track."
Bush campaign spokesman Kevin Madden called the poll results gratifying.
"It shows that when you have a campaign that's focused on the issues and a president that makes a compelling case ... about his positive agenda for leading the nation, it resonates with the voters," he said.
Only four states have more electoral votes than Pennsylvania's 21, and political analysts view it as one of three big-vote swing states, including Ohio and Florida, that could decide the Nov. 2 election. Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by about 430,000 in Pennsylvania. Bush lost Pennsylvania in 2000 by about 204,000 votes.
In the Keystone poll, Bush was leading Kerry in the Central, Northeastern and Northwestern regions of the state. Voters in Southwestern and Southeastern Pennsylvania are supporting Kerry by higher percentages.
Bush also leads among military veterans, born-again Christians, whites, men and those who make more than $50,000 a year. Kerry has an advantage over Bush among Catholics, liberals, moderates, union households, blacks, young voters and those who earn less than $30,000 a year.
With the poll showing the Kerry and Bush supporters firmly behind their respective candidates, the 8 percent undecided voters likely will tilt the election toward the winner in Pennsylvania.
Another Keystone poll participant among undecided voters is Ella Eby, 70, of Lebanon, Lebanon County. She said she usually makes up her mind in presidential elections earlier.
"I think it's particularly hard because of the war in Iraq and the economy. I have family that's been laid off from their jobs," said Eby, a Republican. "I really don't know how I will vote. I'm praying about it."
Janice Keaton, 58, of Galeton, Potter County, said she is undecided because she's just beginning to focus on the race. A registered Democrat who says she votes based on the candidate, not the party, Keaton said she doesn't know enough about Kerry yet.
David M. Brown can be reached at dbrown@... or (412) 380-5614.
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